Association analysis between an epigenetic risk score and blood pressure.

Background: Epigenome-wide association studies have revealed multiple DNA methylation sites (CpGs) associated with alcohol consumption, an important lifestyle risk factor for cardiovascular diseases. Results: We generated an alcohol consumption epigenetic risk score (ERS) based on previously reported 144 alcohol-associated CpGs and examined the association of the ERS with systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and hypertension (HTN) in 3,898 Framingham Heart Study (FHS) participants. We found an association of alcohol intake with the ERS in the meta-analysis with 0.09 units higher ERS per drink consumed per day (p < 0.0001). Cross-sectional analyses in FHS revealed that a one-unit increment of the ERS was associated with 1.93 mm Hg higher SBP (p = 4.64E-07), 0.68 mm Hg higher DBP (p = 0.006), and an odds ratio of 1.78 for HTN (p < 2E-16). Meta-analysis of the cross-sectional association of the ERS with BP traits in eight independent external cohorts (n = 11,544) showed similar relationships with blood pressure levels, i.e., a one-unit increase in ERS was associated with 0.74 (p = 0.002) and 0.50 (p = 0.0006) mm Hg higher SBP and DBP, but could not confirm the association with hypertension. Longitudinal analyses in FHS (n = 3,260) and five independent external cohorts (n = 4,021) showed that the baseline ERS was not associated with a change in blood pressure over time or with incident HTN. Conclusions: Our findings provide proof-of-concept that utilizing an ERS is a useful approach to capture the recent health consequences of lifestyle behaviors such as alcohol consumption.

Association analysis between an epigenetic alcohol risk score and blood pressure.

Background: Epigenome-wide association studies have revealed multiple DNA methylation sites (CpGs) associated with alcohol consumption, an important lifestyle risk factor for cardiovascular diseases. Results: We generated an alcohol consumption epigenetic risk score (ERS) based on previously reported 144 alcohol-associated CpGs and examined the association of the ERS with systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and hypertension (HTN) in 3,898 Framingham Heart Study (FHS) participants. We found an association of alcohol intake with the ERS in the meta-analysis with 0.09 units higher ERS per drink consumed per day (p < 0.0001). Cross-sectional analyses in FHS revealed that a one-unit increment of the ERS was associated with 1.93 mm Hg higher SBP (p = 4.64E-07), 0.68 mm Hg higher DBP (p = 0.006), and an odds ratio of 1.78 for HTN (p < 2E-16). Meta-analysis of the cross-sectional association of the ERS with BP traits in eight independent external cohorts (n = 11,544) showed similar relationships with blood pressure levels, i.e., a one-unit increase in ERS was associated with 0.74 (p = 0.002) and 0.50 (p = 0.0006) mm Hg higher SBP and DBP, but could not confirm the association with hypertension. Longitudinal analyses in FHS (n = 3,260) and five independent external cohorts (n = 4,021) showed that the baseline ERS was not associated with a change in blood pressure over time or with incident HTN. Conclusions: Our findings provide proof-of-concept that utilizing an ERS is a useful approach to capture the recent health consequences of lifestyle behaviors such as alcohol consumption.

Factors associated with healthy aging in Latin American populations.

Latin American populations may present patterns of sociodemographic, ethnic and cultural diversity that can defy current universal models of healthy aging. The potential combination of risk factors that influence aging across populations in Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries is unknown. Compared to other regions where classical factors such as age and sex drive healthy aging, higher disparity-related factors and between-country variability could influence healthy aging in LAC countries. We investigated the combined impact of social determinants of health (SDH), lifestyle factors, cardiometabolic factors, mental health symptoms and demographics (age, sex) on healthy aging (cognition and functional ability) across LAC countries with different levels of socioeconomic development using cross-sectional and longitudinal machine learning models (n = 44,394 participants). Risk factors associated with social and health disparities, including SDH (ß > 0.3), mental health (ß > 0.6) and cardiometabolic risks (ß > 0.22), significantly influenced healthy aging more than age and sex (with null or smaller effects: ß < 0.2). These heterogeneous patterns were more pronounced in low-income to middle-income LAC countries compared to high-income LAC countries (cross-sectional comparisons), and in an upper-income to middle-income LAC country, Costa Rica, compared to China, a non-upper-income to middle-income LAC country (longitudinal comparisons). These inequity-associated and region-specific patterns inform national risk assessments of healthy aging in LAC countries and regionally tailored public health interventions.

The healthy beverage index is not associated with insulin resistance, prediabetes and type 2 diabetes risk in the Rotterdam Study.

PURPOSE: Whether beverage quality affects changes in glycaemic traits and type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk is unknown. We examined associations of a previously developed Healthy Beverage Index (HBI) with insulin resistance, and risk of prediabetes and T2D. METHODS: We included 6769 participants (59% female, 62.0 ± 7.8 years) from the Rotterdam Study cohort free of diabetes at baseline. Diet was assessed using food-frequency questionnaires at baseline. The HBI included 10 components (energy from beverages, meeting fluid requirements, water, coffee and tea, low-fat milk, diet drinks, juices, alcohol, full-fat milk, and sugar-sweetened beverages), with a total score ranging from 0 to 100. A higher score represents a healthier beverage pattern. Data on study outcomes were available from 1993 to 2015. Multivariable linear mixed models and Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to examine associations of the HBI (per 10 points increment) with two measurements of HOMA-IR (a proxy for insulin resistance), and risk of prediabetes and T2D. RESULTS: During follow-up, we documented 1139 prediabetes and 784 T2D cases. Mean ± SD of the HBI was 66.8 ± 14.4. Higher HBI score was not associated with HOMA-IR (ß: 0.003; 95% CI - 0.007, 0.014), or with risk of prediabetes (HR: 1.01; 95% CI 0.97, 1.06), or T2D (HR: 1.01; 95% CI 0.96, 1.07). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest no major role for overall beverage intake quality assessed with the HBI in insulin resistance, prediabetes and T2D incidence. The HBI may not be an adequate tool to assess beverage intake quality in our population.

Dietary and supplemental intake of vitamins C and E is associated with altered DNA methylation in an epigenome-wide association study meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Dietary intake of antioxidants such as vitamins C and E protect against oxidative stress, and may also be associated with altered DNA methylation patterns. METHODS: We meta-analysed epigenome-wide association study (EWAS) results from 11,866 participants across eight population-based cohorts to evaluate the association between self-reported dietary and supplemental intake of vitamins C and E with DNA methylation. EWAS were adjusted for age, sex, BMI, caloric intake, blood cell type proportion, smoking status, alcohol consumption, and technical covariates. Significant results of the meta-analysis were subsequently evaluated in gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) and expression quantitative trait methylation (eQTM) analysis. RESULTS: In meta-analysis, methylation at 4,656 CpG sites was significantly associated with vitamin C intake at FDR ≤ 0.05. The most significant CpG sites associated with vitamin C (at FDR ≤ 0.01) were enriched for pathways associated with systems development and cell signalling in GSEA, and were associated with downstream expression of genes enriched in the immune response in eQTM analysis. Furthermore, methylation at 160 CpG sites was significantly associated with vitamin E intake at FDR ≤ 0.05, but GSEA and eQTM analysis of the top most significant CpG sites associated with vitamin E did not identify significant enrichment of any biological pathways investigated. CONCLUSIONS: We identified significant associations of many CpG sites with vitamin C and E intake, and our results suggest that vitamin C intake may be associated with systems development and the immune response.

Body Adiposity Partially Mediates the Association between FTO rs9939609 and Lower Adiponectin Levels in Chilean Children.

Children carrying the minor allele 'A' at the fat mass and obesity-associated protein (FTO) gene have higher obesity prevalence. We examined the link between FTO rs9939609 polymorphism and plasma adiponectin and the mediating role of body adiposity, in a cross-sectional study comprising 323 children aged 6-11 years. Adiponectin and FTO genotypes were assessed using a commercial kit and a real-time polymerase chain reaction with high-resolution melting analysis, respectively. Body adiposity included body mass index z-score, body fat percentage and waist-to-hip ratio. To investigate adiponectin (outcome) associations with FTO and adiposity, linear regressions were implemented in additive models and across genotype categories, adjusting for sex, age and Tanner's stage. Using mediation analysis, we determined the proportion of the association adiponectin-FTO mediated by body adiposity. Lower adiponectin concentrations were associated with one additional risk allele (ßadditive = -0.075 log-µg/mL [-0.124; -0.025]), a homozygous risk genotype (ßAA/TT = -0.150 [-0.253; -0.048]) and a higher body mass index z-score (ß = -0.130 [-0.176; -0.085]). Similar results were obtained for body fat percentage and waist-to-hip ratio. Body adiposity may mediate up to 29.8% of the FTO-adiponectin association. In conclusion, FTO rs9939609-related differences in body adiposity may partially explain lower adiponectin concentrations. Further studies need to disentangle the biological pathways independent from body adiposity.

C-reactive protein partially mediates the inverse association between coffee consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes: The UK Biobank and the Rotterdam study cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Coffee is among the most consumed beverages worldwide. Coffee consumption has been associated with lower risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D), but underlying mechanisms are not well understood. We aimed to study the role of classic and novel-T2D biomarkers with anti- or pro-inflammatory activity in the association between habitual coffee intake and T2D risk. Furthermore, we studied differences by coffee types and smoking status in this association. METHODS: Using two large population-based cohorts, the UK-Biobank (UKB; n = 145,368) and the Rotterdam Study (RS; n = 7111), we investigated associations of habitual coffee consumption with incident T2D and repeated measures of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), using Cox proportional hazards and mixed effect models, respectively. Additionally, we studied associations between coffee and subclinical inflammation biomarkers including C-reactive protein (CRP) and IL-13, and adipokines, such as adiponectin and leptin, using linear regression models. Next, we performed formal causal mediation analyses to investigate the role of coffee-associated biomarkers in the association of coffee with T2D. Finally, we evaluated effect modification by coffee type and smoking. All models were adjusted for sociodemographic, lifestyle and health-related factors. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 13.9 (RS) and 7.4 (UKB) years, 843 and 2290 incident T2D cases occurred, respectively. A 1 cup/day increase in coffee consumption was associated with 4% lower T2D risk (RS, HR = 0.96 [95%CI 0.92; 0.99], p = 0.045; UKB, HR = 0.96 [0.94; 0.98], p < 0.001), with lower HOMA-IR (RS, log-transformed ß = -0.017 [-0.024;-0.010], p < 0.001), and with lower CRP (RS, log-transformed ß = -0.014 [-0.022;-0.005], p = 0.002; UKB, ß = -0.011 [-0.012;-0.009], p < 0.001). We also observed associations of higher coffee consumption with higher serum adiponectin and IL-13 concentrations, and with lower leptin concentrations. Coffee-related CRP levels partially mediated the inverse association of coffee intake with T2D incidence (average mediation effect RS ß = 0.105 (0.014; 0.240), p = 0.016; UKB ß = 6.484 (4.265; 9.339), p < 0.001), with a proportion mediated by CRP from 3.7% [-0.012%; 24.4%] (RS) to 9.8% [5,7%; 25.8%] (UKB). No mediation effect was observed for the other biomarkers. Coffee-T2D and coffee-CRP associations were generally stronger among consumers of ground (filtered or espresso) coffee and among never and former smokers. CONCLUSIONS: Lower subclinical inflammation may partially mediate the beneficial association between coffee consumption and lower T2D risk. Consumers of ground coffee and non-smokers may benefit the most. KEYWORDS (MESH TERMS): coffee consumptions; diabetes mellitus, type 2; inflammation; adipokines; biomarkers; mediation analysis; follow-up studies.

Association of habitual coffee consumption and kidney function: A prospective analysis in the Rotterdam Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Population-based studies have suggested a protective effect of coffee against development of chronic kidney disease (CKD), possibly through coffee's anti-inflammatory and antioxidant compounds. Studies on coffee and kidney function decline in the general population are scarce. We studied associations of habitual coffee consumption with repeated assessments of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR). METHODS: We used data from 7,914 participants of the population-based Rotterdam Study. Baseline coffee consumption data (cups/day) were obtained from home interviews and validated food frequency questionnaires (1997-2008). Repeated assessments of eGFR (ml/min per 1.73 m2, 1997-2014) were calculated according to the creatinine-based CKD Epidemiology Collaboration equation of 2012. Repeated assessments of urinary albumin and creatinine were used to estimate ACR (mg/g, 2006-2014). Data were analyzed by applying linear mixed models, adjusted for sociodemographic, lifestyle and dietary factors, and cardiovascular disease risk factors. Predefined subgroup analyses were performed stratified by CKD risk factors. RESULTS: Participants' mean (SD) baseline age was 66 (10) years, 57% were women and median [IQR] coffee consumption was 3.0 [2.0, 5.0] cups/day. Those drinking more coffee were more likely to smoke, and to have type 2 diabetes (T2D) and obesity. Mean eGFR was 79 (15) ml/min per 1.73 m2. In the total study population, coffee was not associated with longitudinal eGFR during a median of 5.4 years of follow-up (ß = 0.04 ml/min per 1.73 m2 per one cup/day [95% CI: -0.10,0.18]). However, among those aged >70 years, one additional coffee cup/day was associated with on average 0.84 (0.51,1.18) ml/min per 1.73 m2 higher longitudinal eGFR. Among obese participants this estimate was 0.32 (0.01,0.63). A protective trend was also observed among former smokers (0.17 [-0.03,0.39]) and those with T2D (0.42 [-0.05,0.88]). Coffee was not associated with longitudinal ACR (0.01 mg/ml [-0.01,0.02]). CONCLUSION: While coffee was not associated with eGFR and ACR in the total population, more coffee consumption was associated with higher longitudinal eGFR among those at higher risk for CKD, i.e., among those aged 70+ and obese participants. These findings require confirmation in other prospective cohort studies.

Integrative analysis of clinical and epigenetic biomarkers of mortality.

DNA methylation (DNAm) has been reported to be associated with many diseases and with mortality. We hypothesized that the integration of DNAm with clinical risk factors would improve mortality prediction. We performed an epigenome-wide association study of whole blood DNAm in relation to mortality in 15 cohorts (n = 15,013). During a mean follow-up of 10 years, there were 4314 deaths from all causes including 1235 cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths and 868 cancer deaths. Ancestry-stratified meta-analysis of all-cause mortality identified 163 CpGs in European ancestry (EA) and 17 in African ancestry (AA) participants at p < 1 × 10-7 , of which 41 (EA) and 16 (AA) were also associated with CVD death, and 15 (EA) and 9 (AA) with cancer death. We built DNAm-based prediction models for all-cause mortality that predicted mortality risk after adjusting for clinical risk factors. The mortality prediction model trained by integrating DNAm with clinical risk factors showed an improvement in prediction of cancer death with 5% increase in the C-index in a replication cohort, compared with the model including clinical risk factors alone. Mendelian randomization identified 15 putatively causal CpGs in relation to longevity, CVD, or cancer risk. For example, cg06885782 (in KCNQ4) was positively associated with risk for prostate cancer (Beta = 1.2, PMR  = 4.1 × 10-4 ) and negatively associated with longevity (Beta = -1.9, PMR  = 0.02). Pathway analysis revealed that genes associated with mortality-related CpGs are enriched for immune- and cancer-related pathways. We identified replicable DNAm signatures of mortality and demonstrated the potential utility of CpGs as informative biomarkers for prediction of mortality risk.

Dairy Product Consumption in Relation to Incident Prediabetes and Longitudinal Insulin Resistance in the Rotterdam Study.

Evidence suggests neutral or moderately beneficial effects of dairy intake on type 2 diabetes mellitus risk. Nevertheless, evidence on associations with early phases of type 2 diabetes remains inconsistent. We aimed to examine associations between dairy-type intake with prediabetes risk and longitudinal insulin resistance. The analytic sample consisted of 6770 participants (aged 62 ± 4 years, 59% female) free of (pre-)diabetes at baseline from the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study. Dairy intake was measured at baseline using food frequency questionnaires. Data on prediabetes (fasting blood glucose 6.1-6.9 mmol/L or non-fasting 7.7-11.1 mmol/L) and the longitudinal homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) were available from 1993-2015. Associations with these outcomes were analyzed with dairy intake in quartiles (Q4 vs. Q1) and continuous using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models and linear mixed models. During a mean follow-up of 11.3 ± 4.8 years, 1139 incident prediabetes cases were documented (18.8%). In models adjusting for sociodemographic, lifestyle and dietary factors, a higher intake of high-fat yogurt was associated with lower prediabetes risk (HRQ4vsQ1 0.70, 95% CI 0.54-0.91 and HRserving/day 0.67, 0.51-0.89). In addition, a higher intake of high-fat milk was associated with lower prediabetes risk (HRQ4vsQ1 0.81, 0.67-0.97, HRserving/day 0.88, 0.79-0.99). Associations were found for low-fat dairy, low-fat milk and total cheese with a higher prediabetes risk (HRserving/day ranging from 1.05-1.07, not significant in quartiles). Associations with longitudinal HOMA-IR were similar to prediabetes for high-fat yogurt, low-fat dairy and low-fat milk. Fermented dairy, low-fat yogurt, high-fat cheese, cream and ice cream were not associated with the outcomes. In conclusion, a higher intake of high-fat yogurt was associated with a lower prediabetes risk and lower longitudinal insulin resistance. Additionally, high-fat milk was associated with a lower prediabetes risk. Some low-fat dairy types were inconsistently associated with these outcomes. Studies are needed to confirm associations and to examine the influence of confounding by population characteristics.

The Role of Epigenetic Clocks in Explaining Educational Inequalities in Mortality: A Multicohort Study and Meta-analysis.

Educational inequalities in all-cause mortality have been observed for decades. However, the underlying biological mechanisms are not well known. We aimed to assess the role of DNA methylation changes in blood captured by epigenetic clocks in explaining these inequalities. Data were from 8 prospective population-based cohort studies, representing 13 021 participants. First, educational inequalities and their portion explained by Horvath DNAmAge, Hannum DNAmAge, DNAmPhenoAge, and DNAmGrimAge epigenetic clocks were assessed in each cohort via counterfactual-based mediation models, on both absolute (hazard difference) and relative (hazard ratio) scales, and by sex. Second, estimates from each cohort were pooled through a random effect meta-analysis model. Men with low education had excess mortality from all causes of 57 deaths per 10 000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 38, 76) compared with their more advantaged counterparts. For women, the excess mortality was 4 deaths per 10 000 person-years (95% CI: -11, 19). On the relative scale, educational inequalities corresponded to hazard ratios of 1.33 (95% CI: 1.12, 1.57) for men and 1.15 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.37) for women. DNAmGrimAge accounted for the largest proportion, approximately 50%, of the educational inequalities for men, while the proportion was negligible for women. Most of this mediation was explained by differential effects of unhealthy lifestyles and morbidities of the World Health Organization (WHO) risk factors for premature mortality. These results support DNA methylation-based epigenetic aging as a signature of educational inequalities in life expectancy emphasizing the need for policies to address the unequal social distribution of these WHO risk factors.

DNA methylation of blood cells is associated with prevalent type 2 diabetes in a meta-analysis of four European cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a heterogeneous disease with well-known genetic and environmental risk factors contributing to its prevalence. Epigenetic mechanisms related to changes in DNA methylation (DNAm), may also contribute to T2D risk, but larger studies are required to discover novel markers, and to confirm existing ones. RESULTS: We performed a large meta-analysis of individual epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS) of prevalent T2D conducted in four European studies using peripheral blood DNAm. Analysis of differentially methylated regions (DMR) was also undertaken, based on the meta-analysis results. We found three novel CpGs associated with prevalent T2D in Europeans at cg00144180 (HDAC4), cg16765088 (near SYNM) and cg24704287 (near MIR23A) and confirmed three CpGs previously identified (mapping to TXNIP, ABCG1 and CPT1A). We also identified 77 T2D associated DMRs, most of them hypomethylated in T2D cases versus controls. In adjusted regressions among diabetic-free participants in ALSPAC, we found that all six CpGs identified in the meta-EWAS were associated with white cell-types. We estimated that these six CpGs captured 11% of the variation in T2D, which was similar to the variation explained by the model including only the common risk factors of BMI, sex, age and smoking (R2 = 10.6%). CONCLUSIONS: This study identifies novel loci associated with T2D in Europeans. We also demonstrate associations of the same loci with other traits. Future studies should investigate if our findings are generalizable in non-European populations, and potential roles of these epigenetic markers in T2D etiology or in determining long term consequences of T2D.

Whole Blood DNA Methylation Signatures of Diet Are Associated With Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors and All-Cause Mortality.

BACKGROUND: DNA methylation patterns associated with habitual diet have not been well studied. METHODS: Diet quality was characterized using a Mediterranean-style diet score and the Alternative Healthy Eating Index score. We conducted ethnicity-specific and trans-ethnic epigenome-wide association analyses for diet quality and leukocyte-derived DNA methylation at over 400 000 CpGs (cytosine-guanine dinucleotides) in 5 population-based cohorts including 6662 European ancestry, 2702 African ancestry, and 360 Hispanic ancestry participants. For diet-associated CpGs identified in epigenome-wide analyses, we conducted Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis to examine their relations to cardiovascular disease risk factors and examined their longitudinal associations with all-cause mortality. RESULTS: We identified 30 CpGs associated with either Mediterranean-style diet score or Alternative Healthy Eating Index, or both, in European ancestry participants. Among these CpGs, 12 CpGs were significantly associated with all-cause mortality (Bonferroni corrected P<1.6×10-3). Hypermethylation of cg18181703 (SOCS3) was associated with higher scores of both Mediterranean-style diet score and Alternative Healthy Eating Index and lower risk for all-cause mortality (P=5.7×10-15). Ten additional diet-associated CpGs were nominally associated with all-cause mortality (P<0.05). MR analysis revealed 8 putatively causal associations for 6 CpGs with 4 cardiovascular disease risk factors (body mass index, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations, and type 2 diabetes mellitus; Bonferroni corrected MR P<4.5×10-4). For example, hypermethylation of cg11250194 (FADS2) was associated with lower triglyceride concentrations (MR, P=1.5×10-14).and hypermethylation of cg02079413 (SNORA54; NAP1L4) was associated with body mass index (corrected MR, P=1×10-6). CONCLUSIONS: Habitual diet quality was associated with differential peripheral leukocyte DNA methylation levels of 30 CpGs, most of which were also associated with multiple health outcomes, in European ancestry individuals. These findings demonstrate that integrative genomic analysis of dietary information may reveal molecular targets for disease prevention and treatment.

Dynamic interventions to control COVID-19 pandemic: a multivariate prediction modelling study comparing 16 worldwide countries.

To date, non-pharmacological interventions (NPI) have been the mainstay for controlling the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. While NPIs are effective in preventing health systems overload, these long-term measures are likely to have significant adverse economic consequences. Therefore, many countries are currently considering to lift the NPIs-increasing the likelihood of disease resurgence. In this regard, dynamic NPIs, with intervals of relaxed social distancing, may provide a more suitable alternative. However, the ideal frequency and duration of intermittent NPIs, and the ideal "break" when interventions can be temporarily relaxed, remain uncertain, especially in resource-poor settings. We employed a multivariate prediction model, based on up-to-date transmission and clinical parameters, to simulate outbreak trajectories in 16 countries, from diverse regions and economic categories. In each country, we then modelled the impacts on intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and deaths over an 18-month period for following scenarios: (1) no intervention, (2) consecutive cycles of mitigation measures followed by a relaxation period, and (3) consecutive cycles of suppression measures followed by a relaxation period. We defined these dynamic interventions based on reduction of the mean reproduction number during each cycle, assuming a basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.2 for no intervention, and subsequent effective reproduction numbers (R) of 0.8 and 0.5 for illustrative dynamic mitigation and suppression interventions, respectively. We found that dynamic cycles of 50-day mitigation followed by a 30-day relaxation reduced transmission, however, were unsuccessful in lowering ICU hospitalizations below manageable limits. By contrast, dynamic cycles of 50-day suppression followed by a 30-day relaxation kept the ICU demands below the national capacities. Additionally, we estimated that a significant number of new infections and deaths, especially in resource-poor countries, would be averted if these dynamic suppression measures were kept in place over an 18-month period. This multi-country analysis demonstrates that intermittent reductions of R below 1 through a potential combination of suppression interventions and relaxation can be an effective strategy for COVID-19 pandemic control. Such a "schedule" of social distancing might be particularly relevant to low-income countries, where a single, prolonged suppression intervention is unsustainable. Efficient implementation of dynamic suppression interventions, therefore, confers a pragmatic option to: (1) prevent critical care overload and deaths, (2) gain time to develop preventive and clinical measures, and (3) reduce economic hardship globally.

Sexually dimorphic DNA-methylation in cardiometabolic health: A systematic review.

Sex is a major determinant of cardiometabolic risk. DNA methylation (DNAm), an important epigenetic mechanism that differs between sexes, has been associated with cardiometabolic diseases. Therefore, we aimed to systematically review studies in adults investigating sex-specific associations of DNAm with intermediate cardiometabolic traits and incident cardiovascular disease including stroke, myocardial infarction (MI) and coronary heart disease (CHD). Five bibliographic databases were searched from inception to 15 July 2019. We selected 35 articles (based on 30 unique studies) from 17,023 references identified, with a total of 14,020 participants of European, North American or Asian ancestry. Four studies reported sex differences between global DNAm and blood lipid levels and stroke risk. In 25 studies that took a genome wide or candidate gene approach, DNAm at 31 gene sites was associated with sex differences in cardiometabolic diseases. The identified genes were PLA2G7, BCL11A, KDM6A, LIPC, ABCG1, PLTP, CETP, ADD1, CNN1B, HOOK2, GFBP-7,PTPN1, GCK, PTX3, ABCG1, GALNT2, CDKN2B, APOE, CTH, GNASAS, INS, PON1, TCN2, CBS, AMT, KDMA6A, FTO, MAP3K13, CCDC8, MMP-2 and ER-α. Prioritized pathway connectivity analysis associated these genes with biological pathways such as vitamin B12 metabolism, statin pathway, plasma lipoprotein, plasma lipoprotein assembly, remodeling and clearance and cholesterol metabolism. Our findings suggest that DNAm might be a promising molecular strategy for understanding sex differences in the pathophysiology of cardiometabolic diseases and that future studies should investigate the effects of sex on epigenetic mechanisms in cardiometabolic risk. In addition, we emphasize the gap between the translational potential and the clinical utilization of cardiometabolic epigenetics.

Impacto de diferentes medidas de mitigación en el curso de la pandemia de COVID-19 en Chile: proyección preliminar para el período del 14 de abril al 14 de mayo / Impact of mitigation measures on the COVID-19 pandemic in Chile: preliminary data for the period April 14 to May 14

RESUMEN Objetivo Modelar el curso de la pandemia COVID-19 en Chile y proyectar la demanda de recursos hospitalarios y letalidad en escenarios simulados: primero, recurriendo a distintas medidas de mitigación para contener la propagación en un mes -desde el 14 de abril hasta el 14 de mayo del 2020- y, segundo, en el supuesto contagio del 70% de la población, según edad, sin límite de tiempo. Métodos Utilizamos como base el número de contagios confirmados con SARS-CoV-2 en Chile hasta el 14 de abril del 2020 (8 273 casos, 94 muertes). Para los distintos escenarios, asumimos un número reproductivo básico que va desde R0=2,5 hasta R0=1,5. La proyección de la demanda hospitalaria y letalidad por edad se fundamentaron en reportes italianos y británicos. Resultados Estimamos que para el 14 de mayo del 2020 habría en Chile 2 019 775 contagiados y 15 068 fallecidos en ausencia de medidas de mitigación (R0=2,5). Al implementar medidas que reduzcan R0 a 1,5 (detección temprana y aislamiento de casos, cuarentena y distanciamiento social de mayores de 70 años), el número de contagios y letalidad disminuirían a 94 235 y 703 respectivamente. Sin embargo, la demanda hospitalaria aún sobrepasaría la capacidad de respuesta. La población de mayor riesgo la componen los mayores de 60 años. Conclusión Encontramos evidencia a favor de las medidas de mitigación implementadas por el Gobierno chileno. Sin embargo, medidas más estrictas son necesarias para no colapsar el sistema sanitario, que cuenta con menos recursos hospitalarios que los proyectados. Es esencial aumentar la capacidad hospitalaria en términos de equipamiento y entrenamiento del personal de salud.(AU)

ABSTRACT Objetive To model disease progression, healthcare demand and case fatality rate attributed to COVID-19 pandemic that may occur in Chile in 1-month time, by simulating different scenarios according to diverse mitigation measures hypothetically implemented. Furthermore, we aimed to estimate the same outcomes assuming that 70% of the population will be infected by SARS-CoV-2, with no time limit assumption. Methods We based on the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Chile up to April 14th 2020 (8 273 cases and 94 deaths). For the simulated scenarios we assumed basic reproduction numbers ranging from R0=2.5 to R0=1.5. The estimation of the number of patients that would require intensive care and the age-specific case fatality rate were based on data provided by the Imperial College of London and the Instituto Superiore di Sanità en Italia. Results If no mitigation measures were applied (R0=2.5), by May 25, Chile would have 2 019 775 cases and 15 068 deaths. If mitigations measures were implemented to decrease R0 to 1.5 (early detection of cases, quarantine, social distancing of elderly), the number of cases and deaths would importantly decrease. Nonetheless, the demand for in-hospital care including intensive care would exceed the available resources. Our age-specific analysis showed that population over 60 years are at higher risk of needing intensive care and death. Conclusion Our evidence supports the mitigation measures implemented by the Chilean government. Nevertheless, more stringent measures are needed to prevent the health care system's collapse due to shortfall of resources to confront the COVID-19 pandemic.(AU)

Epigenetic Link Between Statin Therapy and Type 2 Diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the role of epigenetics in statins' diabetogenic effect comparing DNA methylation (DNAm) between statin users and nonusers in an epigenome-wide association study in blood. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Five cohort studies' participants (n = 8,270) were classified as statin users when they were on statin therapy at the time of DNAm assessment with Illumina 450K or EPIC array or noncurrent users otherwise. Associations of DNAm with various outcomes like incident type 2 diabetes, plasma glucose, insulin, and insulin resistance (HOMA of insulin resistance [HOMA-IR]) as well as with gene expression were investigated. RESULTS: Discovery (n = 6,820) and replication (n = 1,450) phases associated five DNAm sites with statin use: cg17901584 (1.12 × 10-25 [DHCR24]), cg10177197 (3.94 × 10-08 [DHCR24]), cg06500161 (2.67 × 10-23 [ABCG1]), cg27243685 (6.01 × 10-09 [ABCG1]), and cg05119988 (7.26 × 10-12 [SC4MOL]). Two sites were associated with at least one glycemic trait or type 2 diabetes. Higher cg06500161 methylation was associated with higher fasting glucose, insulin, HOMA-IR, and type 2 diabetes (odds ratio 1.34 [95% CI 1.22, 1.47]). Mediation analyses suggested that ABCG1 methylation partially mediates the effect of statins on high insulin and HOMA-IR. Gene expression analyses showed that statin exposure and ABCG1 methylation were associated with ABCG1 downregulation, suggesting epigenetic regulation of ABCG1 expression. Further, outcomes insulin and HOMA-IR were significantly associated with ABCG1 expression. CONCLUSIONS: This study sheds light on potential mechanisms linking statins with type 2 diabetes risk, providing evidence on DNAm partially mediating statins' effects on insulin traits. Further efforts shall disentangle the molecular mechanisms through which statins may induce DNAm changes, potentially leading to ABCG1 epigenetic regulation.

[Impact of mitigation measures on the COVID-19 pandemic in Chile: preliminary data for the period April 14 to May 14]. / Impacto de diferentes medidas de mitigación en el curso de la pandemia de COVID-19 en Chile: proyección preliminar para el período del 14 de abril al 14 de mayo.

OBJETIVE: To model disease progression, healthcare demand and case fatality rate attributed to COVID-19 pandemic that may occur in Chile in 1-month time, by simulating different scenarios according to diverse mitigation measures hypothetically implemented. Furthermore, we aimed to estimate the same outcomes assuming that 70% of the population will be infected by SARS-CoV-2, with no time limit assumption. METHODS: We based on the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Chile up to April 14th 2020 (8 273 cases and 94 deaths). For the simulated scenarios we assumed basic reproduction numbers ranging from R0=2.5 to R0=1.5. The estimation of the number of patients that would require intensive care and the age-specific case fatality rate were based on data provided by the Imperial College of London and the Instituto Superiore di Sanità en Italia. RESULTS: If no mitigation measures were applied (R0=2.5), by May 25, Chile would have 2 019 775 cases and 15 068 deaths. If mitigations measures were implemented to decrease R0 to 1.5 (early detection of cases, quarantine, social distancing of elderly), the number of cases and deaths would importantly decrease. Nonetheless, the demand for in-hospital care including intensive care would exceed the available resources. Our age-specific analysis showed that population over 60 years are at higher risk of needing intensive care and death. CONCLUSION: Our evidence supports the mitigation measures implemented by the Chilean government. Nevertheless, more stringent measures are needed to prevent the health care system's collapse due to shortfall of resources to confront the COVID-19 pandemic.